ADP/NFP CONNECTION

Pada laporan ADP jika muncul jarak besar antara nilai forecast dan actual, terutama ketika berjarak 40% atau lebih, maka NFP akan mengikuti arah dari hasil dari ADP. Atau dengan kata lain jika ADP keluar setidaknya 40% lebih besar dari forecast, maka NFP akan keluar dengan arah yang sama. Jika ADP keluar 40% lebih kecil dari forecast, maka NFP juga keluar dengan arah yang sama juga.

Weekly unemployment claims juga berdampak pada pembacaan keluarnya data NFP. Claims rose throughout August, and the 4-week average of claims has risen five straight weeks.

As for the breakdown of the release, most economists expect service-related jobs to have another strong showing. Manufacturing and construction jobs are expected to be weak. This would dovetail with other recent releases. The ISM Service index beat its forecast this week, while ISM Manufacturing had a poor showing. Housing indicators have continued to bottom out across the board.

With the continued focus on credit markets and the Fed's next decision, it's difficult to assess the market's reaction. Most likely, a weak reading should boost stocks and thus carry trade pairs. It should also push up the EUR and GBP against the USD. However, Wednesday's poor print on the ADP seemed to have the opposite effect on stocks and carry trade pairs.